Description

This analysis provides a forecast of JASMY prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.020784 0.026683 0.034759 0.047107 6.649093e-02 0.097753 0.157187
2024-12-15 0.014170 0.020102 0.029581 0.047303 8.400089e-02 0.171699 0.488586
2024-12-22 0.011230 0.016947 0.027039 0.048786 1.049891e-01 0.301727 2.089187
2024-12-29 0.009340 0.014709 0.024887 0.049317 1.253933e-01 0.518223 21.773143
2025-01-05 0.007776 0.012572 0.022078 0.046567 1.336383e-01 0.759216 NaN
2025-01-12 0.006745 0.011161 0.020274 0.045355 1.471207e-01 1.230573 NaN
2025-01-19 0.006238 0.010634 0.020190 0.048946 1.904891e-01 3.407343 NaN
2025-01-26 0.005943 0.010456 0.020836 0.055413 2.729066e-01 26.405645 NaN
2025-02-02 0.005672 0.010266 0.021395 0.062281 3.985974e-01 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 0.005222 0.009599 0.020511 0.062928 4.775795e-01 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 0.004845 0.009033 0.019757 0.063752 5.784465e-01 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.004493 0.008471 0.018877 0.063494 6.757973e-01 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.004056 0.007710 0.017419 0.060450 7.319158e-01 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.003732 0.007181 0.016558 0.060239 9.010293e-01 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.003497 0.006826 0.016136 0.062287 1.255867e+00 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.003269 0.006454 0.015559 0.063032 1.678348e+00 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.002999 0.005939 0.014400 0.059182 1.723937e+00 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.002793 0.005564 0.013630 0.057494 1.990964e+00 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.002701 0.005466 0.013773 0.062511 3.830848e+00 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.002655 0.005481 0.014317 0.071672 1.297589e+01 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.002604 0.005475 0.014793 0.081574 1.062735e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.002479 0.005249 0.014376 0.082515 6.042868e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.002367 0.005047 0.014009 0.083717 8.349566e+06 NaN NaN